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That's probably a big if though. Do you have a plan on what to say if you're not correct?

I admit, other than "I was mistaken about all of this" and "Sorry", I wouldn't know what to say about it.

Do I hand over my editing rights to the article page, or something? (Shrug)

Well, if you can admit you’re wrong, that seems good enough to me. Maybe next time do some further analysis of things you may not have accounted for before you say something again with that confidence?

Next time, when I'm wrong about this issue.

For the time being, tho, I'll stick to "argument from instinct".

https://x.com/MofaQatar_EN/status/2034517464940159428

"Joint Statement Issued by the Consultative Ministerial Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of a Group of Arab and Islamic Countries Regarding the Iranian Attacks…

"The Ministers discussed the Iranian attacks on the Gulf Cooperation Council countries…and they affirmed their condemnation and denunciation of these Iranian deliberate attacks with ballistic missiles and drones…"

"The Ministers also stressed the right of states to defend themselves in accordance with Article (51) of the United Nations Charter…"

I was told that Iran was firing at neighboring Countries in order to pressure them to stop assisting the US. And, maybe I'm delusional, or imagining statements no one ever said, but I was told that such efforts on part of the Aryans were working. However, judging by the above statements from these Gulf States and others, it doesn't seem like they're interested compelling the US to stop.

TL;DR: Iran firing at other countries doesn't make those Countries want to stop the US, it just makes those Countries dislike Iran for firing at them.

Here's some fun context for you.

1. Iran threatens to attack oil infrastructure on the Gulf States if US/Israel strikes their energy infrastructure.

2. US/Israel attacks the South Pars natural gas field anyway. They did not inform their "allies".

3. Iran retaliates as promised. Wipes out 17% of Qatar LNG export capacity in a single blow

4. Trump blames Netanyahu despite Israelis saying otherwise.

I mean, the Gulf countries are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Boilerplate condemnation aimed at Iran aside, I can't see them having much love for the side lobbing the missiles, but if we're doing "argument from instinct" now, I'd bet their view of the US, who has been repeatedly throwing them under the bus and putting them in the line of fire, probably has soured a little bit.

At least the IRGC has the decency of sending evacuation warnings to the infrastructure they're about to strike to minimize civilian casualties. The workers at South Pars didn't get that luxury.

So, in the last 48 hours:

-US/Israel attacked the Natanz nuclear facility (one of the sites "obliterated" by the US in 2025)

-Iran hits Dimona near a nuclear site that, according to the article linked, "is long accepted as holding Israel's undeclared arsenal of nuclear weapons."

-Iran launches two missiles at Diego Garcia, some 4,000km from Iranian territory (meaning most of Europe is potentially within range)

-The orange monke gives an ultimatum for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or else the entire power infrastructure will be targeted.

-Iran refuses to accept the ultimatum and states that in case of attacks they will target the Gulf states' energy, tech industry and desalination plants

The potential consequences for the region are catastrophic given the reliance on those desalination plants. It would be a massive humanitarian crisis and a worldwide economic shock.

Things are getting really bad quite fast and I'm surprised and a bit disturbed nobody's talking about it.

The strange thing about the Diego Garcia attack was that Iran denied responsibility for it. If that is the case, it sure would fuel false flag conspiracies.

10 days ago you responded to me. Every day I wanted to jot a response but I felt that "now is not the time because the situation is changing." and it still is. I wonder if nobody is talking about it is because every fucking day we are met with surprises and unexpected events. It's just too chaotic to really pen anything worth while when the analysis of the situation changes in a span of 12 hours.

I certainly have been discouraged to post anything about it for those reasons.

This war hasn't even reached a full month yet, and it seems – at least the way it's talked about – as if it's lasted an entire year already.

Given the way that the US usually does when it comes to war, I think it would be quite appreciated if they could just skip to the point where they give up, go home, and cope by boasting about "completing all their objectives."

I take it the situation so far isn’t near the optimistic takes you made on the politics thread?

Honestly, the war has been on a surprisingly predictable trajectory since the beginning, if you followed the events of the 12 Day War closely. The real surprise is Trump's constantly going for the worst possible option, pretty much like clockwork. I fully expected him to have TACO'd out by now.

Anyway, another US aircraft was hit. There's video of an F/A-18 hit, most likely by MANPADS.

That Super Hornet lost at least one stabilator. If the flight controls sustained no damage and it was able to go back and land, it isn't going back into the air any time soon.

CENTCOM, of course, quickly denied it. It's getting silly now.

Well, TACOing out would mean he can undo whatever bad decision he did to minimize damage and hopefully nobody notices or can blame him specifically for it. The Iran War has put him in a situation where the consequences (especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz affecting oil prices) can't be easily mitigated quickly just by TACOing out and lying about it, especially that he has to send mixed messages depending on when the markets open and close.

So, you know about those near-irreplaceable THAAD and early warning radars the US lost?

They can, to an extent, use other assets for early warning, like the E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft.

Like the E-3 Sentry stationed at Prince Sultan AB in Saudi Arabia, which was damaged (if not destroyed) by missiles along with a number of KC-135 Stratotankers.

Definitely a Big Oof moment.

Correction to the above as it doesn't let me edit anymore:

Definitely destroyed

Massive oof indeed.

What is the cost in damages?

Unit cost was around $300 million, but it's literally irreplaceable. They don't make those anymore.

The E-7 meant to replace it won't be available until at least 2028, well over twice the cost per aircraft.

Ironically, it could have arrived sooner had Cringe Hegseth not tried to kill the E-7 program last year in favor of some space-based sensor nonsense.

(That's just the AWACS, by the way. The tankers are around $50 million each, replacements around 150 million each).